Afghanistan Debacle

America Is Headed For Military Defeat in Afghanistan

It is time to acknowledge this is more than political. We can lose on the battlefield, and it’s happening right now.

Marines with Bravo Company, 1st Battalion, 7th Marine Regiment, sprint across a field to load onto a CH-53E Super Stallion helicopter during a mission in Helmand province, Afghanistan, July 4, 2014. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Joseph Scanlan / released)

There’s a prevailing maxim, both inside the armed forces and around the Beltway, that goes something like this: “The U.S. can never be militarily defeated in any war,” certainly not by some third world country. Heck, I used to believe that myself. That’s why, in regard to Afghanistan, we’ve been told that while America could lose the war due to political factors (such as the lack of grit among “soft” liberals or defeatists), the military could never and will never lose on the battlefield.

That entire maxim is about to be turned on its head. Get ready, because we’re about to lose this war militarily.

Consider this: the U.S. military has advised, assisted, battled, and bombed in Afghanistan for 17-plus years. Ground troop levels have fluctuated from lows of some 10,000 to upwards of 100,000 servicemen and women. None of that has achieved more than a tie, a bloody stalemate. Now, in the 18th year of this conflict, the Kabul-Washington coalition’s military is outright losing.

Let’s begin with the broader measures. The Taliban controls or contests more districts—some 44 percent—than at any time since the 2001 invasion. Total combatant and civilian casualties are forecasted to top 20,000 this year—another dreadful broken record. What’s more, Afghan military casualties are frankly unsustainable: the Taliban are killing more than the government can recruit. The death rates are staggering, numbering 5,500 fatalities in 2015, 6,700 in 2016, and an estimate (the number is newly classified) of “about 10,000” in 2017. Well, some might ask, what about American airpower—can’t that help stem the Taliban tide? Hardly. In 2018, as security deteriorated and the Taliban made substantial gains, the U.S. actually dropped more bombs than in any other year of the war. It appears that nothing stands in the way of impending military defeat.

Then there are the very recent events on the ground—and these are telling. Insider attacks in which Afghan “allies” turn their guns on American advisors are back on the rise, most recently in an attack that wounded a U.S. Army general and threatened the top U.S. commander in the country. And while troop numbers are way down from the high in 2011, American troops deaths are rising. Over the Thanksgiving season alone, a U.S. Army Ranger was killed in a friendly fire incident and three other troopers died in a roadside bomb attack. And in what was perhaps only a (still disturbing) case of misunderstood optics, the top U.S. commander, General Miller, was filmed carrying his own M4 rifle around Afghanistan. That’s a long way from the days when then-General Petraeus (well protected by soldiers, of course) walked around the markets of Baghdad in a soft cap and without body armor.

More importantly, the Afghan army and police are getting hammered in larger and larger attacks and taking unsustainable casualties. Some 26 Afghan security forces were killed on Thanksgiving, 22 policemen died in an attack on Sunday, and on Tuesday 30 civilians were killed in Helmand province. And these were only the high-profile attacks, dwarfed by the countless other countrywide incidents. All this proves that no matter how hard the U.S. military worked, or how many years it committed to building an Afghan army in its own image, and no matter how much air and logistical support that army received, the Afghan Security Forces cannot win. The sooner Washington accepts this truth over the more comforting lie, the fewer of our adulated American soldiers will have to die. Who is honestly ready to be the last to die for a mistake, or at least a hopeless cause?

Now, admittedly, this author is asking for trouble—and fierce rebuttals—from both peers and superiors still serving on active duty. And that’s understandable. The old maxim of military invincibility soothes these men, mollifies their sense of personal loss, whether of personal friends or years away from home, in wars to which they’ve now dedicated their entire adult lives. Questioning whether there even is a military solution in Afghanistan, or, more specifically, predicting a military defeat, serves only to upend their mental framework surrounding the war.

Still, sober strategy and basic honesty demands a true assessment of the military situation in America’s longest war. The Pentagon loves metrics, data, and stats. Well, as demonstrated daily on the ground in Afghanistan, all the security (read: military) metrics point towards impending defeat. At best, the Afghan army, with ample U.S. advisory detachments and air support, can hold on to the northernmost and westernmost provinces of the country, while a Taliban coalition overruns the south and east. This will be messy, ugly, and discomfiting for military and civilian leaders alike. But unless Washington is prepared to redeploy 100,000 soldiers to Afghanistan (again)—and still only manage a tie, by the way—it is also all but inevitable

The United States military did all it was asked during more than 17 years of warfare in Afghanistan. It raided, it bombed, it built, it surged, it advised, it…everything. Still, none of that was sufficient. Enough Afghans either support the Taliban or hate the occupation, and managed, through assorted conventional and unconventional operations, to fight on the ground. And “on the ground” is all that really matters. This war may well have been ill-advised and unwinnable from the start.

There’s no shame in defeat. But there is shame, and perfidy, in avoiding or covering up the truth. It’s what the whole military-political establishment did after Vietnam, and, I fear, it’s what they’re doing again.

Danny Sjursen is a U.S. Army officer and a regular contributor to The American Conservative. He served combat tours with reconnaissance units in Iraq and Afghanistan and later taught history at his alma mater, West Point. He is the author of a memoir and critical analysis of the Iraq War, Ghostriders of Baghdad: Soldiers, Civilians, and the Myth of the Surge. Follow him on Twitter @SkepticalVet.

Note: The views expressed in this article are those of the author, expressed in an unofficial capacity, and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. government.

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Encounters With India by Eddie James Girdner

 

Encounters With India, by Eddie James Girdner (2015)

(251 pages) Available on Amazon.com

Straight honest discussion from someone who has followed the politics and society of India over the last fifty years. Two years in the Peace Corps at the end of the sixties and travelling to the country several times over this time. Ph.D. from University of California, Santa Barbara. My dissertation, on three Indian political thinkers was published in India (Socialism, Sarvodaya and Democracy).

Mostly written as a journal during a six-weeks Fulbright study trip to India. Clearly written and easy to read quickly, I realized that this book would be very useful to someone why wanted to understand a great deal about the country. It is simple and the language is non-academic. Also an entertaining story that tells one a lot of what to expect in the country if one wishes to travel there. This book will give you a lot of insight that one could never get from a travel guide on India or a Youtube Video.

Fascinating and often frustrating country.

Outside a Christian Church in Hyderabad. Many Christians are Dalits.

Street Scene, Hyderabad (Andhra Pradesh)

Transport

Ellora Caves (Maharashtra)

Ajanta Caves (Buddhist) Maharashtra

Ready for Kharif Season (summer)

Village Scene, South India

Markets

Having Fun. Notice RSS on wall. The Rashtraya Swayam Sevak Sangh (A right-wing militant Hindu nationalist organization)

A dhaba in Punjab. Roadside food.

Jaipur (Rajasthan)

Delhi. Gateway of India, near Parliament

Squeezing Juice (Jaipur)

Collecting Jasmines for the market

Village Panhchayat Office (Local political officials). Andhra Pradesh

Village in South India

Back Street, Hyderabad

Hand Made in Hyderabad

The American Dream for Workers?

General Motors, Sears and Toys R Us: Layoffs Across America Highlight Our Shredding Financial Safety Net

Millions of Americans are in danger of entering their final decades unable to afford ballooning medical bills and cost-of-living expenses

A sign welcomes visitors to the General Motors Lordstown Complex, assembly plant in Warren, Ohio on Nov. 26, 2018. (Photo: Alan Freed / Reuters)
A sign welcomes visitors to the General Motors Lordstown Complex, assembly plant in Warren, Ohio on Nov. 26, 2018. (Photo: Alan Freed / Reuters)

Today’s aging workforce faces an uncertain future. The announcement this week that General Motors will lay off 15 percent of its salaried workforce and shutter multiple plants in North America was a sobering reminder of how far the American worker has fallen. Unlike most large private sector corporations today, thousands of employees at GM still enjoy some union benefits. The company has reportedly set aside $2 billion for layoffs and buyouts. It’s not much, but it’s something — many workers, if they are laid off en masse, will be far less lucky.

Some older Americans are lucky enough to have been grandfathered into generous pension plans and others hope social security and personal savings will be enough to sustain themselves. But for millions of younger people, the outlook is bleaker — an ever-diminishing social safety net, with retirement dependent almost entirely on how well they manage savings. Two-thirds of millennials have nothing saved for retirement.

The private sector pension as we once knew it is all but dead. Public sector pensions, meanwhile, are under attack at the state level.

The private sector pension as we once knew it is all but dead. Public sector pensions, meanwhile, are under attack at the state level. “Companies don’t offer pensions anymore. Social security, when it was established, was meant to be one leg of a stool,” says Gerald Friedman, an economist at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. “One leg would be the private pension through employment, a second leg personal savings, and a third leg social security. Social security is now the only source of income of a lot elderly have.”

What, if anything, are our politicians doing about this? Progressives rail against President Donald Trump, but real retirement security has not been a big enough part of the conversation on either side of the political spectrum. Millions of Americans are in danger of entering their final decades unable to afford ballooning medical bills and cost-of-living expenses. This is a huge problem, and one that liberals in particular should have capitalized on this election cycle.

In 1975, 88 percent of private sector workers had defined benefit pension plans, like those still enjoyed by public sector workers today. Over the course of the 1980s and 1990s, that number plummeted dramatically. By the 2010s, it dropped below 20 percent. The decimation of unions in the private sector, along with federal changes in the Reagan era that made pension funds more volatile, fueled this decline. The New York Times recently illustrated the real-world impact of this trend by examining the differences between employees of Sears, which recently filed for bankruptcy, and Amazon.

Like many large 20th-century corporations, Sears invested in its workforce. The company earmarked 10 percent of pretax earnings for a retirement plan for full-time employees, and by the 1950s, the workers owned a quarter of Sears. Contrast that with a company like Amazon, which in exchange for a $15 minimum wage yanked stock options for hundreds of thousands of employees. The typical Amazon employee now receives $680 annually from the company in a 401(k). The average Sears worker received the present-day equivalent of $2,744, according to the Times. Dividends on accumulated stock could add thousands annually.

Amazon and its corporate brethren are potentially damaging public sector pensions, too. States and municipalities that have underfunded their pension funds for decades now trip over themselves to offer billions in tax breaks to lure new corporate headquarters.

Corporate executives once believed in profit-sharing and using strong retirement benefits to retain employees. In today’s economy, with relatively low unemployment but a proliferation of low-wage jobs, human labor is viewed as more expendable. A hedge funder took control of Sears and led the company into a bankruptcy that would benefit his hedge fund. Wealthy shareholders are prioritized; the workforce itself is secondary.

Meanwhile 401(k) plans, which have often replaced pension plans, provide “no formula that gets you to a defined benefit. At the end of them, you retire and get X amount of money… because you are an individual, you bear the risk of market on your own,” argued Bridget Early, the executive director of the National Public Pension Coalition.

Individual employees with 401(k) plans must fend for themselves while lacking leverage to negotiate, since they are not collective and centrally managed.

Individual employees with 401(k) plans must fend for themselves while lacking leverage to negotiate, since they are not collective and centrally managed. Traditional pension funds created a collective shareholder voice that has been muted over time. In the public sector, where they remain viable, these funds have driven corporate accountability movements, including almost all of the most successful shareholder lawsuits.

Right-wing activists and billionaires like the Koch brothers have long understood the power of pensions and the stability they grant workers. Hollowing them out and breaking unionization efforts has been their life’s work.

As long as Trump is president and anti-worker Republicans control Congress, there is little hope for change. But progressives can make a real difference in the lives of American workers by making serious, sustainable retirement benefits central to their platform. Just as cries for universal healthcare has made supporting “Medicare for All” an increasingly mainstream political position, pressuring powerful corporations to provide pension plans of some sort to employees, once a common practice even 40 years ago, can regain some measure of dignity and comfort for the American worker.

When Will They Ever Learn? When Will They Ever Learn?

Three Thanksgivings – Snapshots From a Career of Failure

Millions of American troops have spent countless holidays away from home, in Iraq, Afghanistan and various smaller wars across the region – it’s worth asking what it’s all for.

 Posted on

Millions of American troops have spent countless holidays away from home, in Iraq, Afghanistan and various smaller wars across the region – it’s worth asking what it’s all for.

The memories can be fond, some of them anyway. Patrolling in the morning with a platoon full of mates – brothers, really – and then returning to base to share decent turkey dinners flown in for our enjoyment. We wore dirty uniforms, gorged ourselves on turkey and sides, and washed it all down with plentiful doses of nonalcoholic beer and energy drinks. Another year, sticking around the chow hall after the holiday meal to watch cricket matches with the vaguely Pakistani contractors who prepared and served our food, desperately trying to learn the rules of the odd sport.

For all the hardships of three holidays spent in Iraq and Afghanistan (2006, 2007, and 2011), the army never failed to get us a Thanksgiving Dinner of sorts. There was a certain sadness, of course, about being away from family and friends – but it was surprisingly easy to face the day and manage a smile in front of the troops. Our humor was dark – dark as hell – but, in times since, I’ve rarely laughed so hard. In a way, Thanksgivings at war weren’t all that bad.

Other memories are rather more morbid. Like when a few military policemen on my Forward Operating Base – cheekily nicknamed “Mortaritaville” on T-shirts sold in the post shop – were wounded by mortar fire while walking to Thanksgiving Dinner. Truth is, American casualties were so common in the Baghdad of 2006-07 that they really only registered as numbers – monthly statistics we used to measure violence in the city. Just another day engulfed in the fire of civil war.

I can’t remember all of the details. Memories can be hazy, and, strangely – manufactured in a way. Still, this Thanksgiving weekend, I found myself thinking back on those three holidays abroad; taking stock of what it was my units had (or had not) accomplished and of my own mental evolution.

On November 23, 2006, a U.S. Army National Guard sergeant was killed by small arms fire in Baghdad and another National Guard corporal was killed by a rocket propelled grenade (RPG) in Afghanistan. I was a 23-year old scout platoon leader then. My unit had only been in country about a month. No one had been killed or seriously injured. The little combat we had seen was but a cat-and-mouse game of short firefights. I’m embarrassed to admit it all seemed rather exciting; in fact, I secretly longed for more action and more war stories. And for my sins I’d get them.

We ate as a platoon in the decent-sized chow hall on Camp Rustamiyah in southeast Baghdad. As for the war, well, it was at one of many low points. Iraq, and Baghdad in particular, was engulfed in a sectarian civil war that’s never truly ended. It may never. Oh, and on that Thanksgiving Day, at least 32 Iraqis were killed. Barely anyone cared about them.

On November 22, 2007, a US Army staff sergeant was killed in an improvised explosive device (IED) blast in Iraq. My unit was still in Baghdad that year for our second straight Thanksgiving – we’d had our tour extended by three months to help execute President George W. Bush’s troop “surge.” I was now the executive officer (XO) of my cavalry troop, acting as the logistics and supply point-man and serving as troop second-in-command. By then, there was nothing glamorous left in that shit-hole of a war. Three of my platoon’s soldiers were dead; one was paralyzed; a few more wounded. There were so many new faces – replacement soldiers – that it was hard to keep up.

I ate with friends, other young officers, in that same camp chow hall. It was a darker day. Anger and frustration – rather than the excitement of the year before – pervaded our conversations on that Thanksgiving. Sure, violence was down – so said General David Petraeus and his statistical charts – but even then we could sense that this was but a temporary pause. Several hundred American troops had died in the intervening year and it was hard to see the point of it all. Oh, and on that Thanksgiving Day, at least 22 Iraqis were killed. No one noticed – violence was “down” after all.

On November 24, 2011, miraculously, no American troops died in either major theater of war. Still, during that month, seven soldiers died in Iraq and 31 lost their lives in Afghanistan. By then the wars had swapped places. The US military now surged in Afghanistan and that was the main theater. I was now the commander of a cavalry troop and ate turkey with my officers and men on a small combat outpost (COP) in the Pashmul district of Kandahar province. Our troop had already lost three dead, several limbs, and suffered more than two dozen wounded. For all that, we barely held more ground than we personally stood on. The Taliban all but had us locked up in our our tiny forts and they attacked us that Thanksgiving – just as they did on nearly every day of our almost complete 2011-12 tour of duty.

I ate with my lieutenants and troopers in a large, dirty green tent – but at least the turkey was there, and hot. By then I’d all but given up on the wars of American interventionism. If I was excited in ’06, and angry in ’07, I was, to be honest, absurdly apathetic by ’11. All that matter to this 28-year-old captain was minimizing casualties and getting the boys home safely to Kansas. We, the American people, were told by then that the war in Iraq was over, a victory – still 11 Iraqis were killed in internecine fighting. It was nearly impossible to find any statistical data on Afghan deaths, but they invariably outweighed those in Iraq.

This past Thanksgiving, the US military remained at war – now actively engaged in at least seven Muslim-majority countries. There’s no end in sight. Every time we, the people, were told that victory was “just around the corner,” our hopes were foiled. Afghanistan is in worse shape than ever before, Iraq’s fragile political structure remains highly unstable and low-level guerrilla warfare continues unabated. The entire Middle East, rather than blooming as a new garden of liberal democracy (the dream of George W. Bush) remains awash in violence, famine, and record refugee flows. It is now beyond farcical to imagine any sort of American “victory” in the region.

And this author, well, he spent this Thanksgiving, without his family and on a shoe-strong of mental health – a marriage on the rocks, worsening PTSD, and in the grips of depression. There were times, this holiday, that I earnestly wished I was back in Baghdad or Kandahar – laughing along with comrades as we lost a war that shouldn’t have been fought. The mind plays tricks, you know? Still, other veterans had it worse. Data indicates about 22 vets kill themselves per day – and the stats don’t break for the holidays. Others struggled to keep warm under bridges or in various shelters. Meanwhile, jets flew over packed NFL stadiums adorned with field-sized American flags, and mainstream media outlets treated viewers to cheerful video notes home from deployed troops. Hardly anyone asked what we’re still doing there.

By the way, another US Army Ranger was killed over this holiday weekend. Oh, and on this Thanksgiving, so did at least 26 Afghans – in case anyone is still counting…

Danny Sjursen is a US Army officer and regular contributor to Antiwar.com. He served combat tours with reconnaissance units in Iraq and Afghanistan and later taught history at his alma mater, West Point. He is the author of a memoir and critical analysis of the Iraq War, Ghostriders of Baghdad: Soldiers, Civilians, and the Myth of the Surge. Follow him on Twitter at @SkepticalVet.

[Note: The views expressed in this article are those of the author, expressed in an unofficial capacity, and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. government.]

Copyright 2018 Danny Sjursen